Research Background

Relying on over 20 years of accumulation of industry data, continuous tracking of industry changes and in-depth researches, BOABC will provide you with a valuable analysis report on the wheat industry and investment.  

In 2024, China’s wheat output hit a new high, but the planting benefits decreased due to a price slide.   

In 2024, the planting area of wheat in China decreased slightly, while the per unit area yield and total output hit new records. Despite an improvement of about 3 percent in per unit area yield in 2024, the output value of wheat decreased by about 1200 yuan/hectare (80yuan/mu) from 17,955 yuan/hectare ( 1197yuan/mu) in 2023 due to a year-on-year decline of over 10 percent in the average price of common wheat, according to BOABC’s estimations. Affected by increased costs in seeds, hired workers and agricultural services and decreased spending in fertilizers, the cash cost of wheat planting in 2024 grew by about 225yuan/hectare (15yuan/mu) from 9,780 yuan/hectare (652yuan/mu) in the year earlier. Due to the reduction in output value and the increase in cash costs, the cash income of wheat planting fell to 6,750 yuan/hectare (450yuan/mu) in 2024, a decrease of 1425 yuan/hectare (95yuan/mu) compared with 8,175 yuan/hectare (545 yuan/mu) in 2023.   

In 2024, China’s wheat consumption decreased slightly, wheat import prices slumped, and the import volume fell from a high level. In view of the decline in wheat consumption for food and feed in the year, BOABC predicts that the country’s total wheat consumption will stand at 143.00 million tons in 2024/25, a decline of 3.31 percent from the previous year. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, the average import price of wheat in China reached US$ 308/ton between January and November, 2024, a decline of 15.01 percent compared with the annual average in 2023, returning to the level in 2021, and the cumulative imports of wheat in this period registered 10.87 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.79 percent. The pace of imports was fast in the first half in contrast to a significant slowdown in the second half.  The import volume dipped to a low level in November and December thanks to relatively sufficient supply at home. BOABC predicts that a total of 9.6 million tons of wheat will be imported by China in 2024/25 (June, 2024 to May, 2025), a year-on-year decrease of 24.92 percent.

In 2024, wheat prices declined, while flour processing profits increased.  According to BOABC’s estimations, the profit of flour processing reached 250~400 yuan/ton between 2010 and 2020, and dropped to 94 yuan/ton in 2023. During the period from 2021 to 2023, wheat prices were high, but the factory price of flour was low, leading to a continued decrease in flour processing profits. The annual average factory price of flour in China stood at 3,223 yuan/ton in 2024, a decline of 4.84 percent from 2023, according to BOABC’s monitoring data. The average stop prices of common wheat and high-quality wheat in 2024 were 2,607yuan/ton and 2,856 yuan/ton respectively, falling by 12.25 percent and 11.45 percent on a yearly basis, according to the monitoring price data of the National Grain and Oil Information Center. As the decline in wheat prices was sharper than that in flour prices, flour processors saw an improvement in profits. The average profit of flour processing reached 222 yuan/ton in 2024, an increase of 126 yuan/ton compared with that in 2023.

This report summarizes the characteristics of wheat production, trade, consumption and price changes, predicts the development and market trends of China’s wheat industry in 2025, and analyzes the operating performance of key domestic flour companies.

BOABC believes this report is an important decision-making basis for wheat producers, traders, processors, and agricultural investors, as well as a valuable reference for industry associations and research institutions.

Contents
1. Analysis of International Wheat Supply and Demand in 2024/25
1.1. Global Wheat Output Is Expected to Climb to A Record High in 2024/25 
1.2. Global Wheat Consumption Is Expected to Remain Stable at A Record High in 2024/2025  
1.3. Global Wheat Trade Is Expected to Experience A Slight Decline in 2024/25, Remaining High
1.4. Wheat Output and Exports Surged in the United States in 2024, but Prices Plummeted
2. Analysis of Wheat Production in China in 2024
2.1. Changes in Sown Area and Output of Wheat  
2.2. Wheat Output in Main Producing Provinces
2.3. Wheat Planting Was Dominated by Winter Wheat and Supplemented by Spring Wheat
2.4. Wheat Planting Benefits Declined
3. Analysis of Wheat Imports in 2024
3.1. Changes in Wheat Import Volume in 2024
3.2. Diversified Sources of China's Imported Wheat  
3.3. Imported Wheat Enriched China's Wheat Consumption Structure
3.4. Wheat Import Profits Declined
4.  Analysis of Wheat Consumption in 2024
4.1. Total Wheat Consumption Declined Slightly
4.2. Flour Milling Accounted for 60% of Wheat Consumption,  Major Part of Wheat Consumption
4.3. Flour Companies Saw Increased Processing Profits
5.  Relatively Loose Wheat Supply in 2024
6. Analysis of Wheat Prices in 2024
6.1. To Lift Minimum Purchasing Price of Wheat in 2025 to Effectively Stablize Market Expectations
6.2. Annual Wheat Price Declined in 2024
7. Analysis of Key Flour Companies
7.1.  WUDELI Flour Mill Group Co., Ltd. (Basic Information and Operation Situation)
7.2. Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co, Ltd. (Basic Information and  Operation Situation)
7.3. COFCO Corporation (Basic Information and  Operation Situation)
7.4. Jinshahe Group (Basic Information and  Operation Situation)
7.5. Jinmailang Food Co., Ltd. (Basic Information and  Operation Situation)
7.6. CHEN KE MING FOOD MANUFACTURING CO., LTD. (Basic Information and  Operation Situation)
8. Forecast for China’s Wheat Markets in 2025
8.1. Wheat Production Forecast
8.2. Wheat Imports Forecast
8.3. Wheat Price Forecast

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